This is a re-post of a short article written by my colleague Kevin Albertson who is an Economics Professor with a special interest in work. He has been one of my co-editors for a recently-published book about Decent Work. In this article, he reviews the history of work and looks to future possibilities for Decent Work. As an economist, he challenges discourses of productivity that are all about economic growth and he is concerned that Decent Work should emerge from economies in which environmental sustainability is the Number One priority. Kevin is critical of dominant market-liberal economic policy which has prevailed in many countries for decades. His analysis of macro-level economic policy and what this offers for work and workers is not an optimistic one but argues that policies that can help bring about more Decent Work are an important way forward. Careers practitioners and researchers who are interested in international and national economic policies that influence work will be interested to read what he has to say.

2030 from 1930

In 1930, surveying the economic causes of the social unrest of his time, the economist John Maynard Keynes, mused on long-term employment trends in the economy of his day and what the following century would bring. Keynes noted in 1930 that productivity had grown – and was continuing to grow – rapidly. He coined the term Technological Unemployment to describe how, as productivity rises faster than demand, fewer and fewer workers are required to service the world’s needs. Keynes suggested, by 2030, only about a third as many hours of work would be required to produce all that civilisation requires. This sounds like progress, but leaves unaddressed by what means this may be achieved. Clearly change on this scale can not be left to chance (or markets); history indicates that allowing capital to have its head during a time of technological change is likely to lead to deteriorating conditions for the majority of workers.

2014 from 1964

A generation later, in 1964 when it seemed democracy and unions had to some extent offset the tendency of capital to accrue the benefits of productivity growth, the science fiction writer, Isaac Asimov tried to imagine the world of 2014. Many of the technical innovations he forecast have yet to come about, some have arrived and others are still on the way. Video telephones, and vegan ‘meat’ are well established, but fusion power remains the energy of the future – and the way things are going, always will be – and space colonies were never able to justify themselves economically – any more than underwater colonies.

However, all was not rosy in the Asimov’s world of the future: Many of the jobs involving drudgery are done by machines in his 2014 visions, “Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders” which he assumes will not lead to job satisfaction. He notes “The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine.” With the benefit of hindsight, this is not entirely accurate, of course, there will be those who serve those who own the machines.

Asimov concludes, that by 2014 “the most glorious single word in the vocabulary will have become work”. However, he does not explain why it is that people will want to work if the machines are doing the heavy lifting.

Worklessness and wellbeing

Recently working age and women have been leaving the labour force in large numbers in response, so it is said to the decline in terms and conditions of employment for low-skill workers. This is, paradoxically, associated with a decline in wellbeing, though whether the reduced wellbeing results from – or results in – their leaving the labour force is unclear.

It is, however, known that loss of job control, overwork, internal competition and micro management undermine the wellbeing, health and indeed, life expectancy, of staff. It is not just any work, but only decent work which contributes to wellbeing.

Globally the labour market is undergoing radical transformations on a scale not seen since the 1930s. An economic slowdown, likely to be long-lasting under the secular stagnation hypothesis, combined with a slowdown resulting from ecological change look likely to reduce employment opportunities in a global labour market that, even before COVID only provided ‘good jobs’ (jobs that give a measure of security to plan for the future) for just one third of the adult population around the world. These shortcomings, if not addressed threaten to destabilise national socio-economies.

Decent work and where to find it

The situation is too complex for any one public policy to address, but at least a part of the public response to these challenges must be to promote Decent Work: work that will increase wellbeing and social-solidarity. This topic of Decent Work is the theme of our recent book.

In our edited collection we present an analysis, from a Decent Work perspective of range of a non-traditional employments, including those in which precarious employees are subject to seasonality, shift work, and a generally uncertain and insecure status. This motivates a theorisation of what is Decent Work and sets the concept into context. We go on to consider the practical implications of a Decent Work analysis for individuals, organisations, and society.

Currently, and since the 1980s, the overarching economic justification of macro-economic policy has been based on the assumption that increasing headline GDP (or real GDP) is sufficient to promote social wellbeing. A further assumption, that promoting the profitability of the corporate sector necessarily increases GDP, gives rise to economic policies generally characterised (or mischaracterised) as neo-liberalism.  It is, however, clear from recent history that such policies will fail to deliver sufficient decent employment opportunities to maintain social stability.

Decent Work provides an alternative overarching concept by which socio-economic innovations can be judged from the perspective of a wider range of stakeholders.